One of the most interesting things about Naheed Nenshi winning the Alberta NDP leadership race is that he almost didn’t enter the contest. As the newly minted leader has said, he was initially scared his brand of politics, “of talking to people, of inspiring people to be bigger than themselves, was completely out of style.”
This is, in the most Nenshi-esque manner of speech, the conundrum for centre-left and left-of-centre politicians at this moment: Does someone like him have a chance to lead and win when an angrier, harder-edged, finances-focused style of politics is in ascendancy?
This was on display in the results of the federal by-election in Toronto-St. Paul’s on Monday, where Conservatives bested the Liberals in a riding the governing party has held for more than three decades – in large part because of voter economic unease. It will also be on display when Mr. Nenshi makes his way in the fraught world of Alberta politics.
To be clear, Mr. Nenshi might disagree with the premise of this column. Shortly after winning an impressive 86 per cent of the first-ballot vote from Alberta NDP members on Saturday, he pointed to the example of Manitoba NDP Leader, now Premier, Wab Kinew. He said Manitoba Progressive Conservatives lost the election last year because they were using a mean-spirited “distillation” of Alberta United Conservative Party values, and Manitobans were actually hungry for hope and optimism. The Alberta NDP can tap into this, too, he said – and it might be something like the 2010 mayoral campaign he won as a policy-focused underdog.
Mr. Kinew is a compelling and popular leader. However, given the incompetency of the then-incumbent PCs – including an odious political ad that touted their decision not to search a landfill for the bodies of murdered Indigenous women – it might have been more a throw-the-bums-out vote by Manitobans, rather than a ringing endorsem*nt of NDP policies.
And it’s not 2010 any more, when Barack Obama was U.S. president. That was before Donald Trump, before the pandemic, before Ukraine, before inflation, before Oct. 7 and Gaza, and before social media became a meaner, coarser, and more fake place.
There is an anger in Canadian politics, which Mr. Nenshi himself acknowledges in voicing his fear. Many are laser-focused on grocery bills that hit like a punch, and worry their children will never come close to owning a home. There’s a new focus on financial security, and a pushback to climate policy costs and disjointed immigration policies, the likes of which we’ve never seen.
In Alberta, there are many factors that aid a conservative incumbent like Premier Danielle Smith. The economy is doing well enough, the oil industry is clicking along, Ms. Smith often battles with the deeply unpopular Prime Minister in Ottawa, and the province’s population is beyond booming – a key metric of success this province of newcomers measures itself by (although this time it’s an affordable housing population boom, not a jobs boom).
Also, there’s the sanctimony that sometimes emanates from progressive politicians. Many voters are tired of this, even those who might otherwise be on the same team.
Mr. Nenshi describes the UCP as “unethical, immoral and incompetent.” The bookend words of that critique are fair game. But the use of the term “immoral” suggests an enemy who is wicked, and evil carries a high burden of proof.
Even the issue that brought him into the leadership race will be a thorny one. Mr. Nenshi entered provincial politics earlier this year after Ms. Smith announced a suite of rigid policies on transgender youth and sex education. When the Premier returns to the issue in the fall, with laws and regulations, Mr. Nenshi will oppose them.
But he’s likely to be more nuanced than he was in February, before entering provincial politics, when lambasted her policies in a fiery speech. Mr. Nenshi has since spoken in more circ*mspect tones, saying that it’s not for governments to legislate such medical decisions. That is a solid argument, and can remain so – even as the public views are mixed, and medical practitioners in European countries have begun a major rethink on a blanket affirmative approach to care for trans youth, which is likely to eventually have a knock-on effect here.
If Mr. Nenshi wants to beat the UCP, he will have to win on Albertans’ concerns about housing costs, and also on protecting and bolstering fragile health care and education systems. He will have to keep business concerns in mind, and show the budget-balancing skills he learned from his immigrant parents. He will have to be a voice of reason on social questions, and unrelentingly pragmatic.
To have a chance of winning over Alberta voters, the new NDP leader will have to be a compelling counter to Ms. Smith, not just the morally correct one.
